Looking into the home appliance industry: Multi-lateral help to grow steadily

The home appliance industry is on the surface, but it is actually sinking.

With the withdrawal of stimulus policies mid-year, the growth of the home appliance industry has slowed down and the volatility has gradually become a market consensus. Based on the impact of policies on demand, the home appliance industry has returned to market competition, and the growth rate of the industry has shown a trend of rising before and after falling.

Looking ahead to 2014, the domestic demand for home improvement driven by the stabilization of the macro economy, the continuation of the trend of urbanization, and the growth in real estate sales will continue to support moderate growth in the industry.

The overall export market is expected to be moderate, the Asia-Pacific market is a stabilizer, and the European market is an accelerator. If the European economy recovers further and the World Cup competition needs more year-round, it may provide upward flexibility for the growth of TV export.

The intellectual property of beachheads was subsidized by policy subsidies to improve the profitability of small brands and the Group's strategic contraction impact. In 2012, the industry concentration fell. In 2013, the leading group in the industry entered the recovery growth phase of the business, and the second-tier brands increased their offensive intensity, and the market share re-entered the concentrated trend. In 2013, the industry structure can be summarized as “leading companies pursue high profits, and second-tier brands’ share and profit space open”.

However, Baidian and Heidian are on the heels of both sides. The integration of the white electricity industry chain is deep and the barriers to scale are high. Leading companies pursue profits and continue to share model bonuses. At the same time, a looser competitive environment will continue to provide second-tier brands with space for share and profit growth.

In contrast, the black industry chain suffers from dual pressures of falling demand and business models. After the energy-saving subsidy policy was withdrawn, the domestic TV market declined in the second half of 2013, and retail sales in the third quarter fell by 11% year-on-year. LeTV contends for the home entertaining battlefield. The price of color TV hardware is fierce and the business model is uncertain.

Smart home appliances are hot words in 2013. Many home appliance companies and internet companies have entered this boom and are expected to continue to heat up in 2014.

Actively responded to the impact of e-commerce impact on e-commerce and the acceleration of the integration of online and offline channels for home appliance industry brands. The slowdown in the growth rate of the home appliance industry and the inherent demand for efficiency increase have prompted the traditional channels under brand management to meet efficiency requirements; at the same time, the rise of e-commerce has broken the price control system of brand owners, online and offline (O2O ) The model has become an effective way for brands to take into account virtual channels.

In the long run, the in-depth differentiation of the channel operation of household appliance companies is not based on the existence of e-commerce operations, but on the distribution of large logistics and big data behind e-commerce operations.

At present, the expedients of household appliances companies are online and offline model divisions and sub-brand operations. However, in the long run, in response to the impact of e-commerce channels, the home appliance industry needs to improve the efficiency of logistics and supply chain operations, and O2O synergizes marketing and rationalizes distributors' interest mechanisms.

In addition, under the influence of the external environment, the product line of the home appliance industry is expected to be further extended, and environmental issues and aging trends are expected to boost the market for environmental protection and health care appliances of the order of 100 billion yuan.

Moderate demand growth In terms of specific product categories, intelligent products in white goods will become the new driving force for 2014 average price increase (310328, fund), and the leading profitability of the industry will be strong. The potential “leadership” plan will improve product structure. Positive promotion. In the area of ​​LCD TVs, new innovations in smart TVs, price drop in color TVs, and implementation of analog-to-number conversion policies are expected to boost the update frequency of TVs. At the same time, new Internet entrants have broken the original pricing model of the color TV industry, and traditional brand companies continue to rely on the business model of profitable hardware. Pressing, traditional brand companies adopt the methods of establishing online brands, collaborating with Internet companies to achieve win-win results, and investing more in software and services to meet the challenges of “dancing with wolves”.

Although the stimulus policy has been withdrawn, the various advantages will still help the steady growth of the home appliance industry. In the context of deep urbanization, for home appliance products, the driving factor for the growth of new demand is the increase in the number of households and the increase in the number of household appliances. The increasing demand for driving updates is due to the increasing stock market and product updates.

Based on the stable environment and potential opportunities faced by the household appliances industry, industry demand will show a moderate growth trend in 2014. Product upgrades will continue and market concentration will continue to increase. Leading companies will continue to focus on profits. Changes in industry trends and the rhythm of internal change in the company's investment logic will be phased out, focusing on companies with stable earnings growth and change expectations.