As China's three major operators have entered the 4G era, TD-LTE living space has once again become the focus of attention. In the 4G era, TDD and FDD are like twins. Although the blood is connected, the difference between the words is destined to be unable to get rid of the fate of being compared, especially in the most critical growth period of TD-LTE. Objectively, from a global perspective, FDD seems to be “matureâ€, while TDD is relatively “cowardlyâ€. Specific to China, the world's largest mobile communications market, this is a key position in the global fate of TD-LTE. Although TDD started early, FDD has been pressing and pressing. Whether the first-mover advantage can ultimately help TD-LTE to succeed is still unknown. Can TD-LTE, which has grown up in a lot of hardships, succeed in laying down "half of the country?" 2014 will be the most crucial year.
1. TD-LTE straight through the ultimate "PK game"
Every upgrade of mobile communication technology will bring about a reshaping of the global mobile communication industry. The arrival of 4G provides a rewrite pattern for China's mobile communications industry, and the new version of the pen is TD-LTE.
If we say that in the 3G era, China has stood on the arena of the world mobile communication for the first time with TD-SCDMA, and has the tickets for the same platform competition; then, in the 4G era, China will once again pass TD-LTE. Enter the ultimate "PK game" with more exciting and attractive performances. Although the process of this competition will be more difficult and requires unprecedented efforts, the answer will be proved by the strength and victory of the entire industry chain.
To enter the ultimate "PK tournament", TD-LTE must have a market size and number of users that match the qualification. For TD-LTE, the most obvious challenge is that LTE FDD has a first-mover advantage in the world, and TD-LTE is relatively "weak". In terms of population coverage, data from ABI Research shows that TD-LTE covered only 6.4% of the global population before the official commercial TD-LTE market in China. From the perspective of network scale, the latest LTE evolution report released by GSA shows that as of January 25, 2014, there were 263 LTE commercial networks in the world, of which TD-LTE network accounted for just over 10%.
"Congenital deficiency" is doomed to TD-LTE must catch up, and 2014 is a crucial year on the road to catch up. The backwardness of TD-LTE in the initial period is inseparable from the objective basis. As Wang Tao, president of Huawei's wireless network business department, said in an interview with the People's Post and Telecommunications reporter, the reason why TD-LTE currently covers a small number of people is due to the inertia of technology, and operators will naturally choose to evolve at the beginning. To FDD. However, 2014 is destined to be the year of TD-LTE development, and also the year of the 4G pattern. In this year, TD-LTE is expected to rely on the significant increase in the number and scale of commercial networks, as well as more convincing coverage, especially in the Chinese market, and the most successful way to achieve the goal of equalizing FDD. A solid step.
2. Equally divided autumn will fade the difference
As a "milk compatriot" in the 4G era, TDD and FDD have many commonalities in technology, which makes the difference between the two sides very subtle. When TD-LTE hit half of the country, it was the day when the twins joined hands to drive the development of mobile communications, and it was also the day when 4G got rid of the right and left hands.
The inertia in technology choices gives FDD a first-mover advantage, but the unique advantages of TD-LTE will surely make it a catch-up. "Most operators will choose to deploy LTE FDD first. Only some operators will deploy LTE TDD first. A few operators will deploy two modes at the same time, but eventually all major operators will deploy FDD and TDD in their networks." Market Consulting from the United States Mike, the founder of the company's SignalResearch Group, gave such predictions after a long-term focus on the development of the LTE market.
God is fair, and it gives TD-LTE a "congenital deficiency" while giving it a unique advantage of its natural existence. These advantages include higher spectral efficiency of TD-LTE and greater flexibility to meet the uplink and downlink asymmetry of mobile data traffic. The spectrum price of TD-LTE is relatively low (for example, in North America, the FDD spectrum price is 2.29 times the price of TDD spectrum. ), and the TCO savings that TD-LTE can bring to the deployment of backhaul networks. Among them, the spectral efficiency of TD-LTE can be explained by an image metaphor: "If FDD uses two bridges to carry two-way traffic, then TDD uses a single bridge with signal lights to support two-way traffic." The unique advantage is the most important reason why more and more operators around the world choose to deploy TD-LTE.
"TD-LTE will be divided equally with the European-led LTE FDD in the future" - Zhai Guohua, then deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in 2011. This is obviously not just a dream. ABIResearch predicts that in the next five years, TD-LTE coverage will grow rapidly in the global market: by 2018, it will grow to 49%, sitting in the "half of the 4G market." At the same time, equipment manufacturers who are committed to the TD-LTE industry are also confident. For example, Wang Tao has a more positive forecast for the future development of TD-LTE: next year, the proportion of TD-LTE users will exceed 30% or 40%; users of TD-LTE and FDD services in the next two or three years The number will be similar; the discussion about the difference between TD-LTE and FDD will also "will soon be forgotten by everyone."
3. The day after tomorrow catches up to make up for the congenital deficiency
Since it is behind at the starting line, in the follow-up schedule, TD-LTE will naturally struggle to challenge the "impossible" task.
Catching up has always been an easy task. It requires a lot of courage and enough courage. It is not difficult to explain that China Mobile has been awarded the TD-LTE commercial plan in the name of “Great Leap Forwardâ€. From a global perspective, the most important driving force for the significant increase in the number and coverage of TD-LTE users comes from the emergence of China Mobile, the “leaderâ€. According to China Mobile's plan, it will build more than 500,000 TD-LTE base stations by the end of 2014, covering more than 340 cities. From a stage perspective, according to Li Zhengmao, vice president of China Mobile, in mid-2014, China is expected to have 4 cities with 4G commercial conditions. It is precisely because of the short time and large scale that China Mobile’s plan has even been crowned with the “Great Leap Forward†by the industry. However, only the “big dry†is coming, TD-LTE is expected to usher in 2014. The explosive growth of users is also expected to achieve the goal of “half of the countryâ€. In fact, China Mobile is gradually fulfilling its commitments. At least the current progress is in line with expectations: in the first two months of 2014, there were more than 20 cities in the country that could provide 4G services, and the number of users reached 1.34 million.
As an important part of TD-LTE's scale expansion, the terminal also injected unprecedented momentum into the development of the entire industry in 2014. In March 2014, China Mobile proposed the “Ultimate Edition†of the five-mode customization requirements and the goal of selling 100 million 4G terminals in 2014, which sent a clear signal to the terminal and chip industries. Although the shift from “three-mode†to “five-mode†will make the terminal and chip links undergo a painful transition, it will also help the enterprises that have been vacillating to find the right direction, thus participating more enthusiasm in the TD-LTE market. Going in the competition. This is indeed the case. As China Mobile’s TD-LTE terminal strategy becomes clear, both domestic brands such as ZTE, Huawei, Coolpad, and foreign brands such as Samsung and Sony have released the new TDD multimode mobile phone. In an instant, the TD-LTE mobile phone market in China and the world has been pushed to a new high.
It is worth noting that the innovative traffic management model will become the key to building competitiveness in the 4G era. Consumption traffic has become the main content of 4G operations; the experience of consumer traffic is not good, directly affecting the choice of users. At present, thanks to the first commercial use in the Chinese market, TD-LTE operators have won time differences in the exploration of traffic management, and unprecedented new attempts such as traffic sharing and traffic tradability will inevitably help them to explore a success soon. Traffic management rules.
Beyond the Chinese market, there are overseas markets that support the dream of TD-LTE “half the wayâ€. In addition to the already announced commercial TD-LTE overseas operators, markets such as Indonesia and India are making major investments in TD-LTE. More and more LTE FDD operators have chosen to deploy TD-LTE in additional frequency bands to expand network capacity.
Conclusion
Do not experience the wind and rain, how to see the rainbow? Although the road to catching up is full of challenges and hardships, TD-LTE is destined to take the most important step in its life course in 2014. It is this step that will make TD-LTE closer to its goal of “half of the countryâ€...
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